The Cycliste Moderne, July 15, 2005

Weekend preview

It does not take a genius to predict that the stages on Saturday and Sunday will be decisive in this year’s Tour de France. Both stages end with uphill finishes. Both stages traverse some of the toughest climbs in the Pyrenees. Saturday’s stage is the longer of the two and slogs 15km up the Port de Pailheres, which averages 8% over the climb. The finishing climb to Ax-3 Domaines is not as steep or as long as the finish on Sunday but does come at the end of a 220km stage.

Sunday’s stage has the profile you would expect for a stage in the Pyrenees. It looks like an electrocardiogram with six categorized climbs over the last 100km. Although the stage is shorter and the climbs are generally shorter than Saturday’s stage, each of the climbs is steep, and the combined effect of the six climbs will put the hurt on the peleton.

Both stages are longer than the stages in the Alps this year. Tuesday is still a very hard day in the Pyrenees with the riders climbing over the Aubisque before dropping down into Pau and following a rest day. Three stages of over 200km each in the Pyrenees will leave the peleton really tired. Then three undulating days into the Massif Central and the long final time trial face the riders before they reach Paris. This year’s Tour de France will go down as one of the most difficult ever, not due to really epic mountain stages, but rather due to the incessant rolling and mountainous terrain the peleton has faced since they rolled out of Pforzheim to start Stage 8.

So what will happen?

I had to chuckle when reading comments from some team directors and riders that the race would turn in the Pyrennes because it is going to get hotter and Armstrong does not perform well in the heat, or that now that he is one year older and 34 he certainly has had his best days behind him. It is not going to be easy for anyone. However, to expect Armstrong to suddenly crack and wilt in the Pyrenees is highly unlikely. If he is going to get beat then CSC, Phonak, and T-Mobile will have to cooperate and utterly disregard their own abilities to win. That has not happened to this point and will not likely happen this weekend either.

That said, I like Armstrong for the finish on Saturday. It is the type of stage he has won in the past and I think he will be motivated to win a mountain stage for the team. Sunday, I would expect and hope that the Euskaltel Euskadi riders actually show up. It is a long stage that will permit a motivated break away to get up the road, especially one with riders well down in the GC. Armstrong will mark his rivals and attack to put time into them but not to win the stage.

Sunday evening I expect Armstrong to have increased his lead over the expected team leaders by at least two minutes. Rasmussen is the wild card. He is an excellent climber and is motivated like never before. He has never had good form for all the grand tour mountain stages he has raced and is suspect in the individual time trial. I would expect him to remain within two minutes of Armstrong by the time they leave the Pyrenees.

What about the loss of Beltran?

Discovery Channel suffered a major blow when Manuel Beltran crashed Thursday and abandoned with a concussion. The loss of an experienced climber will hurt Discovery somewhat. However, when compared with last year’s US Postal Service team, I do not think it will affect the outcome of the race for Armstrong and Discovery Channel.

First, the loss of Slava Ekimov was a major blow for Discovery for the flat portions of the race. However, Discovery essentially replaced Ekimov with Paolo Salvoldelli who, although he is showing fatigue after his victory at the Giro d’Italia, is certainly a stronger climber.

Second, Beltran has not been with Armstrong over the high mountain passes this year. He has been dropped early and team management conceded that his efforts were primarily being used over the mid-level climbs.

Third, George Hincapie has been amazing. A couple of years ago, Hincapie missed all the spring classics with a bug and did not race much until the Tour de France. At the Tour, his climbing ability was greatly improved and he frequently stayed with Armstrong up to all but the highest passes. This year Hincapie stayed with Armstrong and the team almost to the top of the Galibier, the highest climb in the Tour and a climb that goes on for 30km when climbed from the north. He then raced back on the descent. I cannot remember another rider since Eddy Merckx who could finish on the podium at Paris-Roubaix in April and then be with the leaders in the Alps.

Finishing with Salvoldelli, Hincapie, Azevedo and Popovych in Briançon showed that Armstrong had a strong team for the mountains. Last year Benjamin Noval got stronger as the Tour went along as well. Moreover, Chechu Rubiera has had a quiet Tour but has had some monster days in the Pyrenees in the past.

Tour Fashion Review #8

Today we will talk about the orange teams Rabobank and Euskaltel Euskadi. Orange is cool. When we decided to make our Team Cyclista kits last year, living near Boise State and knowing the passion which the Dutch and Basque fans have for cycling, we blatantly ripped them both off in our design.

You probably have not missed Rabobank this year with two stage wins already and the lead in the king of the mountains competition.

Rabobank has the traditional Dutch orange jerseys which furthers the Dutch bank’s brand identity. However, this year, the jerseys are more orange than they have been in the past and the team looks like giant orange creamsicles.

The sponsor logos are smaller than in the past and I would argue misplaced. On the right side of the jersey there is no discernable Rabobank logo. Moreover, they have reserved the prime locations on the shorts for the following phrases “hypotheken” and “Nr 1 en hypotheken.” That is Dutch for mortgages. Mortgages are not a very sexy thing to put on your shorts. Because this year’s Rabobank kit is not as cool as last year's wild flame type thing, I can only give them a C+

You probably have not seen Euskaltel Euskadi at this year’s Tour de France. They have had a miserable time and had better spring something for their fans over the next few days as the race heads through the Pyrenees or they may not be allowed to come home. I fear milk cartons throughout the Basque region are starting to have their pictures put on them with the question "have you seen this team?"

The team is sponsored by the Basque regional authority as well as the regional telecom. Their jerseys are orange with their sponsor’s logos. Not too busy, which is something small teams fall victim to each year.

Euskaltel gets an A- for their simple yet classic design. The Cycliste Moderne’s fashion grade unfortunately may be the best result the team gets at this year’s Tour.