The Cycliste Moderne, July 4, 2005

I am thankful for a wife who has developed an interest in the things I like. Kristin really saved me last week. I am now more or less focused for the next three weeks. I may post daily, we will have to see. Due to the fact that every news outlet in America is following the Tour de France, I am not going to provide a stage by stage recap as I did during the Giro d’Italia. You can get that from the links that we provide to Cyclingnews.com, Velonews.com or Pezcyclingnews.com. I will provide you with insight that will make you look like an expert at the office, however.

Who Will Win Le Tour?

A lot of people have asked me who I think will win the Tour de France this year. I think it is going to be interesting to say the least. Here are my thoughts:

Why Armstrong Won’t Win #7

I am writing this after Armstrong’s impressive finish during the Stage 1 time trial where he finished second and more importantly put over a minute into Jan Ullrich and most of the other projected contenders. Yesterday’s performance does not change my belief however, that Armstrong will not win the Tour this year. Why?

1. None of the prior 5 time winners went out on top. Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Indurain all won five Tours de France. They all tried to win six. They all failed in their last attempts at winning the Tour. Anquetil abandoned during the 19th Stage of the 1966 Tour de France and retired two years later. Merckx, after winning five Tours, attempted the race again in 1975 and 1977, finishing second and fifth. Merckx retired in 1978. Bernard Hinault finished second at the 1986 Tour de France, “helping” Greg LeMond win his first Tour. Miguel Indurain finished 11th during the 1996 Tour and retired later that year after abandoning during the Vuelta a Espana.

2. Armstrong has not raced enough this season. Entering the Tour, Armstrong had participated in just a handful of races. He abandoned during Paris-Nice after just a couple of stages. He rode the one day Ronde van Vlaanderen, the Tour of Georgia and the Dauphine Libere. All told he has less than 15 days of racing in him for the season. He has certainly continued to train hard, however training does not replicate racing.

3. Armstrong has been very lucky over the last 6 Tours. Over the last six Tours, he has had almost perfect conditions. He has avoided most major crashes. He has avoided illness. He has had maybe one bad day each Tour. It is amazing that he has managed to continue winning and avoiding the types of accidents, injuries and destructive behavior that have sidelined other competitors like Joseba Beloki, Jan Ullrich and Marco Pantani. During the Giro d’Italia earlier this year, Ivan Basso was clearly the strongest rider with the strongest team. But for a stomach bug which sapped his strength over two mountain stages, Basso would have ridden away from everyone else. The same could happen to Armstrong.

Why Armstrong Will Win #7

That said, Armstrong will win the Tour de France. Why?

1. Nobody can climb as well, time trial as well, and has as strong a team as Armstrong.

2. For all the talk of riders like Jan Ullrich, no one has consistently challenged Armstrong in the Tour.

3. Discovery Channel is still the strongest, most focused team in the race.

4. Who else can win it?



Now on to Le Tour!!!!

Stages 1, 2, 3

This year’s tour started with an individual time trial. Generally, the Tour starts with a “prologue” which is simply an individual time trial less than 10km long. As it did in 2000, however, the Tour started with a short 20km individual time trial. The effect of such a time trial is to shake up the general classification from the outset of the race and unlike a prologue, where the main sprinters will lose only thirty seconds or so, most of them lost over two minutes to the leaders on Saturday. That means that the Yellow Jersey is not likely to be worn by a sprinter this year.


Zabriskie Breaks Through In Stage One

Dave Zabriskie, the Utah time trial specialist who moved from US Postal Service to CSC in the off season, has become just the third American to ever wear the yellow jersey as a result of his win in the Stage 1 time trial. In winning the time trial, Zabriskie set the speed record for a non-prologue time trial, surpassing Greg LeMond and Lance Armstrong.

Zabriskie has had a phenomenal last 12 months. He was the US Individual Time Trial champion. He won a road stage at the Vuelta a Espana last year in a solo break away. He finished fifth at the World Championships in the individual time trial. He won the first time trial at this year’s Giro d’Italia. He won the opening stage of the Tour de France. In short order, he has joined a rather exclusive group of American cyclists who have won stages in a Grand Tour and an even more exclusive group of Americans who have worn the Maillot Jaune (Armstrong, LeMond, Zabriskie). What makes that all the more impressive is what he had to overcome before his run of good form started.

Much has been made of Zabriskie’s crash in 2003; while training in Emigration Canyon in Salt Lake City he was hit by an SUV. The crash hospitalized him with multiple fractures, including a broken leg. Most people do not know about the horrific crash he suffered during last year’s Redlands Classic. After finishing second in the prologue to eventual winner Chris Horner, Zabriskie went down during the first stage of the 2004 Redlands Classic. He suffered a serious concussion and had to be taken to the hospital in a helicopter.

Zabriskie is only 26 years old. His best years are ahead of him as a cyclist. Moreover, his interviews with the press during these first two days of the Tour de France remind me a lot of the interviews with Lance Armstrong after he won the prologue at the 1999 Tour. He was almost overwhelmed by the magnitude of what he had accomplished. He will stay in yellow, at least until the team time trial on Wednesday.

However, should CSC manage to beat Discovery Channel in the team time trial, it is possible that Zabriskie could stay in yellow until the Alps. The team is in the midst of sponsorship negotiations with CSC to extend its sponsorship. CSC is in fact an American company based in Northern Virginia. Having an American in the lead at the Tour de France for as long as possible certainly is good for the sponsor and the team. Discovery is not going to want to attack and take the yellow this early in the race. CSC has always been pretty good at the team time trial. It is unlikely that T-Mobile or Credit Agricole will be able to win and put enough time into Discovery and CSC to put Alexander Vinokourov or Lazlo Bodrogi, their respective general classification leaders, into the yellow with a win.


Boonen Performs as Expected in Stages 2 and 3.

The second and third stages of the Tour de France have unfolded as would be expected. There have been early breaks of 3-4 riders that stay away for most of the day only to be caught in the last 20km of the race. Then the sprinters’ teams go to the front in an attempt to control the tempo and set their leaders up for the victory. This year there is no Alessandro Petacchi, Mario Chippolini or Erik Zabel, riders whose teams have historically committed their entire efforts to delivering their leader to victory. Those teams would put anywhere from 6-8 riders on the front of the race to lead the sprint out.

This year with the advent of the ProTour, more teams are competitive and the talent is deeper. Moreover, virtually every team has a general classification contender. As a result, teams do not commit their entire resources to the sprint finishes. There have been only 3-4 riders per team at the front to lead out their sprinters. The effect has been sprints which are much more competitive and more teams have the possibility of victory. That said, Tom Boonen of Quick.Step has proven himself to be the best sprinter in the race so far this year. He has easily won the second and third stages, outsprinting Robbie McEwen who is probably the best sprinter in the world next to Petacchi.

Boonen’s talents in the spring classics and Grand Tour sprints make him a rider who could have a very long and successful career. He is clearly the most consistent Belgian rider in the peleton today. Boonen turned pro with US Postal Service but left the team after one year due to his concerns with his ability to develop on a team solely focused on preparation for the Tour de France and supporting Lance Armstrong. It was clearly a good move for Boonen.