The Cycliste Moderne, July 5, 2005

Following up on Monday's post on why Armstrong will not win the Tour a seventh consecutive time, it is only fair to provide you with who I think will win this year.

My pick for the Tour.

When Armstrong won in 1999 for the first time, he was not a rider that anyone expected to win leading up to the race. The 1999 US Postal Service team was a fairly weak team. No one knew if he could climb and time trial consistently over three weeks. He was frequently left alone by his team in the mountains, yet managed to win. It was Johann Bryuneel’s leadership and encouragement that enabled Armstrong to believe he could win and have his team support him to victory.

My pick for the Tour this year is Ivan Basso of Team CSC-Nobili. Basso was clearly the strongest rider at the Giro d’Italia in May. He was the best climber and the best time trialist. His untimely sickness cost him his first Grand Tour. He did not quit, however, and even after losing almost an hour over two mountain stages, he rode to two stage victories before the end of the Giro, one in the mountains, one in the final time trial. Bjarne Riis, the team manager for CSC, is a former winner. He has shown his ability to get the most out of his riders. CSC is a lot like Discovery in management and direction and team work.

If Alexander Vinokourov rode for CSC and not T-Mobile, he would be my pick. He is one of the most aggressive and consistent riders in the peleton. He finished on the podium two years ago. His climbing skills have improved as evidenced by his victory on the Mont Ventoux during this year’s Dauphine Libere. However, the drama that is T-Mobile in the form of Jan Ullrich has stifled Vinokourov. T-Mobile will not get a rider on the podium unless the team races for Vinokourov from the outset of the Tour. Vino would be my choice, but he has too much holding him back to overcome.


Americans at the Tour

The Tour has a strong American flavor this year and not because of the presence of an American team, Discovery Channel. After the opening time trial there were five Americans in the top 11. David Zabriskie of CSC was first, Lance Armstrong and George Hincapie of Discovery Channel were second and fourth respectively, Floyd Landis of Phonak was sixth and Bobby Julich of CSC was eleventh. That is a phenomenal result. The best placed Spanish rider was thirteenth on the stage, the best Italian was twentieth and the best French rider was twenty fourth.

Cycling has become much more global and America has been at the forefront of the emergence of cycling outside of the traditional powers of Italy, France and Spain.

More impressive is the fact that there are more Americans on non-American teams than ever before. Discovery Channel only has two Americans on the roster at the Tour. Chris Horner is riding for the Spanish team Saunier Duval-Prodir. Bobby Julich and David Zabriskie are riding for the Denmark’s Team CSC. Fred Rodriguez is at the Tour with the Belgian Lotto-Davitamon team. Levi Leipheimer is at the Tour for the German team Gerolsteiner. Floyd Landis is riding for Phonak of Switzerland. Last but not least is Guido Trenti, of Quick.Step of Belgium. Trenti is an Italian rider whose American mother traveled to Italy in the early 1970’s, fell in love with an Italian and never returned. He is an American who speaks little English but who obtained U.S. citizenship a few years ago so that he could more easily gain entry to the World Championships as an American.

It is incredible to see a couple of guys who came up through the regional racing scene in the Intermountain West, Zabriskie and Leipheimer, racing in Europe. Both raced as amateurs in Salt Lake City and have gone on to win races in Europe.


Tour Fashion

You know that the mainstream is focusing on bike racing when ESPN.com’s columnist Paul Lukas spends much of his recent edition of “Uni Watch” on the fashions of the Tour. He explains the various jerseys to the lay man and provides pictures. As I have done earlier, I will provide my Tour Fashion Review as we go on over the next few weeks.


Tour Fashion Review #1

Back in the day, Spanish team Once would come to the Tour in pink jerseys to differentiate themselves from the yellow jersey winner. Pantani’s Mercatone Uno team similarly changed their canary jerseys to pink on occasion at the Tour.

This year, Spanish team Saunier Duval-Prodir has come to the Tour with a slightly different jersey than they typically wear. The Saunier Duval jersey has been made predominately white so as to avoid confusion with the yellow jersey. Not really that bad. However it is unclear if they have had special white long socks made for their appearance at the Tour this year. Saunier Duval gets a B. Not to flashy, not too exciting, but not distracting either.