The Cycliste Moderne, June 29, 2006

I was forced to make a very difficult decision on Saturday morning. Prologue or England v. Portugal. That is a difficult decision made easier through OLN's incessant Tour coverage and the fact that England v. Portugal is a do not miss event on Saturday. Forca Portugal!!!

Tour Preview

In the last issue I gave a preview of who I thought would win the Tour de France. Let’s now look at what they will have to do to win it.

Prologue – This year’s Prologue in Strasbourg is absolutely flat but does have some hard 90 degree turns to complicate it. I expect American Dave Zabriskie of Team CSC to win, however, the wild card is David Millar, whose two year doping ban ended this last week just in time for the Tour. Millar will likely be inspired to redeem himself.

Stages 1-6 – The opening week of the Tour de France continues the Tour’s recent homage to the spring classics. With a stage following a portion of the course of Liege-Bastonge-Liege and ending in Valkenberg, Netherlands, the finishing town for the Amstel Gold Race and a stage beginning in Huy, Belgium the finishing town in the Fleche Wallone, the first week covers five countries with long, relatively flat stages. The sprinters should dominate, however, the conditions are ripe for successful breakaways especially once the race turns west on Stage 4.

Stage 7 – The first individual time trial of the Tour is in and around Rennes. At 52km, the time trial will provide the first real separation for the general classification leaders. It is not a particularly difficult course favoring a power rider like Jan Ullrich. Ivan Basso should also do well, but Dave Zabriskie may get his second stage win of the Tour on Saturday, July 8.

Stages 8-9 – These two stages are wrapped around the first rest day. They theoretically should favor the sprinters again as arguably this is the most sprinter favorable first week of the Tour in probably eight years. Coming after the time trial and after the rest day, these stages may result in a surprise winner. With ten days of riding before the first climb, the top contenders will have time to ride themselves into peak shape. As a result these stages could result in a long breakaway with a rider like Thomas Voekler positioning himself to wear the yellow jersey into the Alps in a week.

Stages 10-11 – These two stages in the Pyrenees are not the most difficult stages in the Pyrenees. Stage 10 goes over the Col de Soudet but that is 90km from the finish and the last climb occurs about 45km from the end. The riders will hurt, but Stage 10’s long downhill into Pau is not likely to result in a big shakeup on the GC. Stage 11, however, should be the first stage to shake up the overall. The first of five categorized climbs is the Hors Categorie Tourmalet, followed by four consecutive Category 1 climbs over the Col d’Aspin, the Col de Peresourde, Cold Du Portilon and then the long climb up to Pla-de-Beret in Spain.

Stages 12-14 – Stage 12 on Bastille Day, July 14, runs out of the Pyrenees over an undulating course with four small climbs. As is typically the case, on Bastille Day a French rider will go on the attack to win. This is the perfect route for that to happen especially after Stage 11 finally instills order in the GC. Stages 13 and 14 are both difficult stages, leading the riders to the big climbs in the Alps. They too will likely favor attacking riders well down the GC.

Stage 15 – The first day in the Alps is a classic with the riders first going over the Co d’Izoard, then the Col Du Lautaret, finishing on the L’Alpe d’Huez. This stage will give someone the chance to put some pain into the other leaders and will show who is the top dog at the Tour.

Stage 16 – The day after L’Alpe d’Huez is even more difficult with the long 40km slog up the Col du Galibier to start the stage followed by a climb up the Col de la Croix de Fer and a finish at La Toussuire. This stage was ridden during Stage 6 of the Dauphine Libere and was won by Iban Mayo. This stage will be another difficult day for the peleton and the big teams will look to deposit their leader at the base of the final climb to La Toussuire.

Stage 17 – The last day in the Alps is a lot like Stage 11 in the Pyrenees with a sawblade profile. However the final climb up the Col de Joux Plane is followed by a down hill run into Morzine. This finishing course has seen some of the most aggressive riding in the past primarily driven by the late Marco Pantani, who soloed to victory in Morzine in 1997 and who attacked Lance Armstrong in 2000 resulting in Armstrong’s famous bonk on the final climb. The GC should be decided before the Joux Plane, but it is stage that can shake things up for the riders.

Stage 18 – This stage gives the sprinters their first chance to win a stage in over a week. With a largely downhill run punctuated by a series of category 2, 3 and 4 climbs, the day will likely result in a group finish as the green jersey leaders will look for any advantage they can get. If the green jersey is close, the stage will finish in a bunch sprint.

Stage 19 – This 57km individual time trial is a long and technical course. With an undulating profile and winding narrow roads, this stage will once again cement the final general classification. Ullrich, Basso and Landis will again slug it out for supremacy against the clock. This course could cause the type of meltdown that we saw last year when Rabobank’s Michael Rassumusen lost it and tumbled down the GC.

Stage 20 – The parade into Paris winds through the southwestern suburbs of Paris before the riders race up and down the Champs-Elysees.

This year’s Tour de France will result in a worthy champion. With four difficult mountain finishes and two long time trials, this is a course that would have favored a rider like Lance Armstrong. It certainly is a course that favors a true stage racer like Ullrich, Basso or Landis. The long individual time trials will prevent any pure climber from having a chance at victory. The stages are long and difficult this year. The flat stages are largely going to be contested with headwinds or crosswinds. The climbing stages are unrelenting.

If you only could watch three stages of this year’s Tour, I would recommend Stage 11 on July 13 to Pla-de-Beret, Stage 15 on July 17 to L’Alpe D’Huez and Stage 16 on July 19 to La Toussuire.

More Doping

If my rant earlier this week that they are all doing it needs any reaffirmation, then check out the latest from Spain, where almost every favorite at this year’s Tour de France has been named by any one of the Spanish papers falling over each other to name names. It really makes you wonder where the truth lies.

This is a bigger scandal than the 1998 Festina affair because of the number of riders and teams implicated. As Mrs. Cycliste Moderne said the other night “Operacion Puerto is the Euro-BALCO.”

If you want to stay up to date on the current status of the current euro dope scandal be sure to check out the Cycliste Moderne’s links to the major cycling news services.

The Cycliste Moderne, June 27, 2006

Long Time, No Write

Sorry things have been quiet. I have just spent four days in Dallas for the annual commercial office building conference and trade show. That consumed the better part of all four days and getting ready to leave also consumed every waking moment I had. First things first, however, England v. Portugal will likely be a 1-0 game and will not be pretty but it could be the most compelling match of the quarter finals. I just cannot see Germany continuing its run and beating Argentina, I cannot see Italy losing to Ukraine and I cannot see the French beating Brazil. England v. Portugal is a toss up. At the end of the day it will be Brazil v. Argentina in the World Cup final as Italy has not shown enough scoring ability to get by Italy and Brazil is gradually getting better and Brazil's second 11 is probably better than the starting 11 that either Portugal or England can put on the field.

As for Dallas, Mrs. Cycliste Moderne went with me and she got to see the highlights of life in Big D: Neiman Marcus, Dealey Plaza and the Texas Book Depository, the Cotton Bowl. I got to sit in the air conditioned Dallas Convention Center which is exactly what you would think a city like Dallas would build for a convention center. She got to watch my team Portugal defeat the Netherlands as I sat in a speech by Malcolm Gladwell. At least I had my Blackberry so I could watch the match tracker and she would e-mail me her commentary from the hotel.

At night I got to get out though and we did go to the new soccer stadium in Frisco, Texas for FC Dallas as well as hit a Brazilian churrascaria where it is essentially all you can eat meat. The only bikers I saw in all of Dallas, however, were the 100 or so Harley riders parked at a bar in the North Dallas suburbs. I did not see one person on a bike in four days.

Dope

Well, the big news is dope. Lance Armstrong and Tyler Hamilton have been in the news. It was interesting to be in Texas and see the sports commentators rise up to defend Armstrong from the latest allegations by Frankie Andreu’s wife and Greg LeMond. Both the Austin and Dallas sports pages had local commentaries and stories that largely blamed the latest issues on the French. I got back late last night from Dallas and saw Armstrong on ESPN defending himself and calling everyone else a liar.

The Spanish press continued the press barrage over the weekend with stories linking Tyler Hamilton to the doctors at the center of the latest doping scandal there. The Spanish papers offer doping schedules they purport showed Hamilton’s doping regime as well as a financial statement purportedly faxed to Hamilton’s wife. Jan Ullrich has also been alleged to have been involved in the Spanish doping affair as well.

The UCI and ASO, the organizers of the Tour de France, are awaiting the Court of Arbitration for Sport’s decision on whether the former Liberty Seguros, now Wurth-Astana team will be allowed to start the Tour on Saturday. The UCI has approved the license for the new sponsor and will not sanction the team until the Spanish authorities take some action. The ASO does not want the team there. The CAS has now promised to hold a hearing on the matter and issue a ruling by Friday.

I have come to the conclusion that yes, probably every athlete has cheated in one form or another in their careers. Some times the cheating occurs during the course of the event or on the field of play. Some times the cheating occurs off the field or outside the running of the event but has an effect on the outcome. In some sports, cheating has become a game inside the game. Those who get caught just get sneakier. Those who don’t get caught think they are invincible. When athletes do get caught, they frequently are willing to name names.

Cheating does not affect, however, the popularity of the sport. NASCAR is not less popular due to the rampant cheating that exists in the sport. Baseball has never been more popular than during the drug induced boom years of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Professional wrestling has never been affected by the illegal drug use and fixed results that exist in the “sport.” Why? Because people want to be entertained.

The Dick Pound’s of the world do not comprehend that sport has always been about entertainment. People go to sporting events to escape. Athletes cheat because (a) they can and (b) they honestly believe everyone else is doing it. We need to reconsider how we are fighting the war on doping. The current model is broken. It results in athletes categorically proclaiming their innocence. It results in WADA and the press declaring everyone to be a cheat. The truth is in between. Most athletes have probably doped at some time in their career. Most of that doping has had virtually no effect on the outcome of the events. The more authoritarian the response from doping officials, the less likely they are to be able to root out the problems and to end doping.

Most importantly, has doping really affected the popularity of any sport? Absolutely not. Is track and field any more or less popular as a result of doping? Is boxing? Is swimming? Is cycling? None of them have had their popularity affected by doping.

Tour Preview

I will try to get a Tour preview out for Friday. However, if I am not able to do so, know that while the Tour is likely to be exciting due to the fact that Armstrong is not there, it is interesting to note that Ivan Basso’s CSC team, Floyd Landis’ Phonak team and Jan Ullrich’s T-Mobile team have been named and clearly have a single focus, that is getting their leaders to the front and keeping them there. As CSC showed during the Giro d’Italia, the Armstrong-Bruyneel model of a strong team coupled with strategic attacks by the leader which occur only when the leader can gain an advantage will likely prevail in the ProTour era. All three teams have had excellent results this season for their leaders using this model. With larger teams and larger budgets, some teams will be going to the Tour knowing that they can get a rider into the top 10 and that is all they really want to do. As is usually the case, there are probably only five riders capable of winning the Tour: Basso, Ullrich, Landis, Leipheimer, Valverde. Of those Valverde probably does not have the team or experience to do it. Leipheimer has yet to show really strength in the Tour de France. That leaves the final podium as Basso, Ullrich, Landis in that order.

The Cycliste Moderne, June 18, 2006

Tour de Suisse Recap

Jan Ullrich looks to be in good shape for the Tour de France. He stayed close to the lead throughout the race and won the final time trial today as expected. It did not look like he had to expend too much energy in winning and he certainly has shown that he is in shape to be one of the top five riders at the Tour de France next month. Ullrich also appears to be thinner than he has in a few years. I don’t think that Ullrich can win the Tour but he will once again contend and will once again finish on the podium. Sorry there is not more, I just have not had the time or energy to really follow the race. The World Cup is on and that is the most important thing right now.

Armstrong Calls Out Pound

Lance Armstrong fired off an eight page letter to the IOC this week calling upon the organization to take action against Dick Pound and WADA for the breaches of ethics that have occurred as a result of the L’Equipe investigation of the 1999 Tour de France. A copy of the letter has been published by Cyclingnews.com. This month, Dick Pound was interviewed by Outside Magazine and reasserted his belief that Armstrong doped in 1999. The war between the two certainly has not ended and will continue. At the end of the day, however, the IOC is going to have to step up and decide whether WADA is best served by having such a polarizing figure as Dick Pound as its leader. Moreover, if the IOC and all of the individual sports federations want to truly do something about doping WADA needs to be led by a strong figure whose integrity is above reproach and who does not appear to have a personal ax to grind. Dick Pound is neither. If you want to know more about the Canadian lawyer who publicly defended Ben Johnson’s doping in 1988, check out this column by Sally Jenkins in the Washington Post in 2004.

Eindhoven Team Time Trial

The ProTour added a team time trial last year to give ProTour teams an opportunity to train and compete in the event. However, the Tour de France has now removed the team time trial and it really is not an event which attracts the best line ups from the ProTour teams. Moreover, the event suffered significant lack of sponsor support in its first few years. It is still around and was contested today in Eindhoven. The coolest thing about the race is that it goes right by the Eindhoven Holiday Inn where I always stay when I am in Eindhoven. (Before you judge me for my hotel choice, the Eindhoven Holiday Inn is a four star hotel within walking distance of the city center, the train station and Phillips Stadium where PSV Eindhoven plays.) Even the Eindhoven Team Time Trial organizers recognized the importance of the World Cup as its start time was adjusted to avoid competing with the World Cup matches today. Team CSC won the race and clearly took it seriously since it brought Dave Zabriskie, Bobby Julich and Jens Voight as part of the team to contest it. Discovery Channel and Gerolsteiner finsished second and third. Of course the best placed French team was in ninth place and no Spanish team cracked the top ten.

Just Riding Along

Yesterday we went out for an hour and a half ride so that my ten year old could complete his Cycling Pin for Cub Scouts. It never ceases to amaze me the things you see people doing when you are out for a ride. So here are some of the things we saw:

Old guy on a Trek Cyclocross bike with his button down long sleeved shirt tucked into his cycling shorts.

Old guy on a Cannondale with his bike jersey tucked into his cycling shorts so far that he covered up half of his pockets.

Couple on cruisers who obviously having mechanical problems pull off the Boise Greenbelt into the area marked “Warning Stay on Path: Puncture Vine.”

Family out for a ride where the parents ride without helmets, but the kids ride in flip flops.

A really big 6 year old out on his 16 inch wheels with his little legs spinning at about 200 rpm while wearing his hooded winter coat.

It is good to be out riding but a few notes for people:

Wear shoes not flip flops
Wear your helmet especially on the Greenbelt because you never know when a kid will take you out.
Do not tuck your jersey into your bike shorts. Jerseys and shirts go over shorts not under them.
If you have a mechanical go somewhere that is safe for you and your bike to do your repair

World Cup Recap

The United States played one of the gutsiest games it has ever had to play holding on to tie Italy 1-1. The United States can advance with a win over Ghana and an Italian win over the Czech Republic. Any other scenario is unlikely for the United States to advance as it lakcs the goal differential needed to advance if the Czech Republic beats Italy. You have to wonder, however, why the Uruguayan referee who officiated the US-Italy match, who had been suspended by the Uruguayan FA for corruption in 2002 would ever be called up to referee at the World Cup with that mark on his resume.

Anyway, Brazil has not yet looked like Brazil in the tournament. Argentina has looked the best of anyone so far in the tournament as they have the total package of defense and offense. None of the African or Asian have looked like they belong in the tournament. Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago have not won but they have at least been competitive. Ecuador is probably the surprise of the tournament so far. The difficult South American qualifying process has benefited them. The best game of the Second Round will likely be Portugal versus the Netherlands as both teams play an attacking style with significant possession in their midfields. It could be either a 6-4 or a 0-0 outcome but it should be exciting.

The thing that has been most evident to me is that the draw this year just has not resulted in terribly exciting or competitive matches except for in the US’ Group.

The Cycliste Moderne, June 11, 2006

Dauphiné Libéré Recap

The Dauphiné Libéré concluded today with Gerolsteiner’s Levi Leipheimer winning the general classification. Last year Leipheimer was in a position to win the race but did not defend his lead as aggressively as he should and as a result, he lost when his team allowed Euskaltel Euskadi’s Inigo Landaluze get away in a break away. The Basque rider managed to get a lead that was insurmountable and as a result, Leipheimer finished third.

This year, the Dauphiné was an attractive pre Tour de France warm up with a stage virtually identical to the Tour’s 16th stage and a tour like long time trial. This attracted top Tour contenders who were in various states of condition. Vinokourov and Landis came to test the time trial course and get some miles in their legs. They certainly rode within themselves and did not aggressively contest the climbs.

Most impressive was the finish of the Americans on stage three. CSC’s Dave Zabriske once again dominated the time trial, but Floyd Landis, Levi Leipheimer and George Hincapie finished second, third and fourth. All four are clearly on their game when it comes to the individual time trial as their dominating performance showed.

Leipheimer showed that he was one of the strongest climbers in the race as he was glued to the wheels of Christophe Moreau of AG2R and Denis Menchov of Rabobank, the only two riders who were able to match Leipheimer during the climbs. AG2R was really impressive with both Moreau and Francisco Mancebo having strong showings. The French team may have their best Tour ever.

Leipheimer ran the risk of peaking too early, but he certainly showed the type of power on the climbs and time trial that he needs to finish on the podium in Paris.

Tour de Suisse

The Tour de Suisse started on Saturday and will run through next weekend. The Tour de Suisse has not attracted the deepest field when the number of Tour contenders are compared with the Dauphiné. Jan Ullrich is contesting the Tour de Suisse with a very strong team, however, other than Steffano Garzelli of Liquigas and Cadel Evans of Davitamon Lotto, there are not really any of the riders expected for the overall in France in July. The Tour de Suisse will likely be won by a member of T-Mobile as Ullrich has the support of Michael Rogers and Patrik Sinkewitz, both of whom are capable stage racers. Ullrich will likely not expend the resources to win the Tour de Suisse as most of his other main competitors either just finished the Dauphiné Libéré or are recovering from the Giro d’Italia.

Tour of Eagle

I spent Friday night helping my friend Gary Casella put on his annual criterium as part of Eagle Fun Days. It is a great little race as running it in conjunction with Eagle’s festival ensures excellent police support and a captive audience. Amazingly, the crowd thinned out before the end of the final race of the night with the Category 1/2 race. Perfect conditions, slightly overcast, high 70’s, no wind.

That said, you know you are still in Eagle, Idaho when the guys with their blue farmer jackets, cowboy hats, cowboy boots and wranglers mix with the tube top and flip flop crowd. Maybe I will wear my bike kit to the Snake River Stampede rodeo this summer and see how out of place I look.

Bob LeBow Ride

Saturday, my wife and I and the three kids did the Bob LeBow Ride in Nampa, Idaho. My mother had made the youngest two outfits that matched our Team Cyclista kits. She did point out that when I was the age of my 10 year old I would not have agreed to have the whole family wear identical outfits in public. She had a point there, but when you have subjected your children to cycling from birth and they are conditioned to want to look like the pros, it is not a very big problem.

World Cup

Cycling is really going to have to be secondary to the World Cup for the next month. I cannot guarantee that soccer commentary will not find its way into the Cycliste Moderne. After this weekend, I can say the Dutch look good, the Germans can score but not defend, the Poles are a disaster, the English ought to be grateful just to win, and the Argentines are the best that have played so far. Most importantly, I would encourage you to check out the long version of the “Jose +10” ad of Adidas where two kids pick their dream teams to play and then play a match. Great ad, great inside jokes.

The U2 promotions for ESPN are pretty cool as well.

The Cycliste Moderne, June 4, 2006

It was a good weekend for Americans

Tour of Luxembourg

Christian Vande Velde won the Tour of Luxembourg for Team CSC on Sunday. Vande Velde became just the second American to ever win the Tour of Luxembourg, which ironically, had been won mostly by cyclists from Luxembourg. Vande Velde rode aggressively and won the overall by sticking with the leading groups in the final three stages. Lance Armstrong won the event in 1998. The Tour of Luxembourg is difficult due to the rolling terrain that the riders face as they race in and around Luxembourg.

Dauphine Libere

Dave Zabriske of Team CSC won the prologue, kicking off the Dauphine Libere in France today. Discovery Channel's George Hincapie finished second. The Dauphine Libere has become one of the most important pre Tour de France preparation races on the calendar. It takes place in southeastern France and frequently covers many of the climbs that will be contested in July. This year the race has a stage finish on Mont Ventoux and its 6th Stage from Briançon to La Toussuire mirrors Stage 16 of the Tour going over the Hors Categorie Col du Galibier and the Col de la Croix de Fer before finishing on the first category climb in to La Toussuire.

The Dauphine Libere has attracted a very strong field with Tour de France contenders, Levi Leipheimer of Gerolsteiner, Floyd Landis of Phonak, Alexandre Vinokourov of Wurth, Denis Menchov of Rabobank, Alejandro Valverde of Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears and Discovery Channel's Tour hope Yaroslav Popovych all lining up at the race. Some riders have peaked too early and ridden too strongly at the Dauphine Libere as Iban Mayo did a couple of years ago and as Lance Armstrong did the year before that.

With the climbing and time trialing required to win the Dauphine Libere, it is always a good race to test the form of the top Tour contenders a month before the Grande Boucle departs.

Doping Item Number 1

The UCI's independent evaluation of the L'Equipe investigation into Lance Armstrong's purported use of EPO during the 1999 Tour de France was released this week to the consternation of the UCI, WADA, L'Equipe and others. Dutch attorney and former Dutch doping chief Emile Vrijman issued a report highly critical of WADA and the French lab that conducted the tests that L’Equipe claimed proved Armstrong had doped during the 1999 Tour de France. The UCI immediately criticized Vrijman for releasing the report independently without letting the UCI review it first. WADA and its chief, Canadian attorney Dick Pound, criticized the report and Vrijman alleging that WADA and Pound had been defamed by Vrijman's findings. L’Equipe claimed it stood by its account

The 132 page report is available at Velonews.com. I would recommend you read it and draw your own conclusions. Even ESPN.com ran a story about how no one is a winner in this mess and how even when Armstrong is vindicated that more issues are raised. At the end of the day, Vrijman’s report does not prove Armstrong did not dope. Instead Vrijman’s report does establish that the tests that were performed and the surrounding issues would preclude any determination that Armstrong did dope.

Most importantly, Vrijman’s report does call into question WADA’s commitment to its own regulations, the French lab’s commitment to valid science, and the validity of any testing on samples more than five years old that lack any semblance of a chain of custody to actually believe they are what the are purported to be.

Doping Item Number 2

As discussed last week, Liberty Seguros/Liberty Insurance terminated its sponsorship of the Spanish team it sponsored with Wurth. The team lined up to race this week in plain blue and white jerseys with the Wurth logo on the front. Cycling media outlets are reporting that a consortium of companies from Kazakhstan will sponsor the team for the remainder of the season to support Kazakh national hero Alexandre Vinokourov. However, reports also suggest that the ASO, the organizer of the Tour de France, will seek to exclude the team from the Tour de France as a result of Manolo Saiz arrest. The ASO is waiting to see what action the ProTour will take against the team before it will act. Although the ProTour and the organizers of the Grand Tours had apparently come to an agreement to end their bitter dispute, this issue is likely to inflame tensions between the two if the ProTour fails to take action against the team. Needless to say, Alexander Vinokourov finds himself the likely victim of whatever wrangling occurs as he seeks to improve his aggressive performance in last year's Tour de France for T-Mobile where he finished fifth overall, winning the final stage on the Champs Elysees.

Uni Watch

Paul Lukas, ESPN.com’s fashion maven and biweekly contributor to Page 2, has recently launched a daily blog on sports uniform issues.

It is a shame that he is a Paul come lately and failed to recognize the Cycliste Moderne as the original blog on sports fashion, particularly cycling fashion. That does not mean that he is not a really enjoyable read, especially if your sporting interests cover the whole gamut of sports.

Anyway. here are the links to last July’s Tour fashion ratings. We will do the same again this season.