The Cycliste Moderne, June 29, 2006

I was forced to make a very difficult decision on Saturday morning. Prologue or England v. Portugal. That is a difficult decision made easier through OLN's incessant Tour coverage and the fact that England v. Portugal is a do not miss event on Saturday. Forca Portugal!!!

Tour Preview

In the last issue I gave a preview of who I thought would win the Tour de France. Let’s now look at what they will have to do to win it.

Prologue – This year’s Prologue in Strasbourg is absolutely flat but does have some hard 90 degree turns to complicate it. I expect American Dave Zabriskie of Team CSC to win, however, the wild card is David Millar, whose two year doping ban ended this last week just in time for the Tour. Millar will likely be inspired to redeem himself.

Stages 1-6 – The opening week of the Tour de France continues the Tour’s recent homage to the spring classics. With a stage following a portion of the course of Liege-Bastonge-Liege and ending in Valkenberg, Netherlands, the finishing town for the Amstel Gold Race and a stage beginning in Huy, Belgium the finishing town in the Fleche Wallone, the first week covers five countries with long, relatively flat stages. The sprinters should dominate, however, the conditions are ripe for successful breakaways especially once the race turns west on Stage 4.

Stage 7 – The first individual time trial of the Tour is in and around Rennes. At 52km, the time trial will provide the first real separation for the general classification leaders. It is not a particularly difficult course favoring a power rider like Jan Ullrich. Ivan Basso should also do well, but Dave Zabriskie may get his second stage win of the Tour on Saturday, July 8.

Stages 8-9 – These two stages are wrapped around the first rest day. They theoretically should favor the sprinters again as arguably this is the most sprinter favorable first week of the Tour in probably eight years. Coming after the time trial and after the rest day, these stages may result in a surprise winner. With ten days of riding before the first climb, the top contenders will have time to ride themselves into peak shape. As a result these stages could result in a long breakaway with a rider like Thomas Voekler positioning himself to wear the yellow jersey into the Alps in a week.

Stages 10-11 – These two stages in the Pyrenees are not the most difficult stages in the Pyrenees. Stage 10 goes over the Col de Soudet but that is 90km from the finish and the last climb occurs about 45km from the end. The riders will hurt, but Stage 10’s long downhill into Pau is not likely to result in a big shakeup on the GC. Stage 11, however, should be the first stage to shake up the overall. The first of five categorized climbs is the Hors Categorie Tourmalet, followed by four consecutive Category 1 climbs over the Col d’Aspin, the Col de Peresourde, Cold Du Portilon and then the long climb up to Pla-de-Beret in Spain.

Stages 12-14 – Stage 12 on Bastille Day, July 14, runs out of the Pyrenees over an undulating course with four small climbs. As is typically the case, on Bastille Day a French rider will go on the attack to win. This is the perfect route for that to happen especially after Stage 11 finally instills order in the GC. Stages 13 and 14 are both difficult stages, leading the riders to the big climbs in the Alps. They too will likely favor attacking riders well down the GC.

Stage 15 – The first day in the Alps is a classic with the riders first going over the Co d’Izoard, then the Col Du Lautaret, finishing on the L’Alpe d’Huez. This stage will give someone the chance to put some pain into the other leaders and will show who is the top dog at the Tour.

Stage 16 – The day after L’Alpe d’Huez is even more difficult with the long 40km slog up the Col du Galibier to start the stage followed by a climb up the Col de la Croix de Fer and a finish at La Toussuire. This stage was ridden during Stage 6 of the Dauphine Libere and was won by Iban Mayo. This stage will be another difficult day for the peleton and the big teams will look to deposit their leader at the base of the final climb to La Toussuire.

Stage 17 – The last day in the Alps is a lot like Stage 11 in the Pyrenees with a sawblade profile. However the final climb up the Col de Joux Plane is followed by a down hill run into Morzine. This finishing course has seen some of the most aggressive riding in the past primarily driven by the late Marco Pantani, who soloed to victory in Morzine in 1997 and who attacked Lance Armstrong in 2000 resulting in Armstrong’s famous bonk on the final climb. The GC should be decided before the Joux Plane, but it is stage that can shake things up for the riders.

Stage 18 – This stage gives the sprinters their first chance to win a stage in over a week. With a largely downhill run punctuated by a series of category 2, 3 and 4 climbs, the day will likely result in a group finish as the green jersey leaders will look for any advantage they can get. If the green jersey is close, the stage will finish in a bunch sprint.

Stage 19 – This 57km individual time trial is a long and technical course. With an undulating profile and winding narrow roads, this stage will once again cement the final general classification. Ullrich, Basso and Landis will again slug it out for supremacy against the clock. This course could cause the type of meltdown that we saw last year when Rabobank’s Michael Rassumusen lost it and tumbled down the GC.

Stage 20 – The parade into Paris winds through the southwestern suburbs of Paris before the riders race up and down the Champs-Elysees.

This year’s Tour de France will result in a worthy champion. With four difficult mountain finishes and two long time trials, this is a course that would have favored a rider like Lance Armstrong. It certainly is a course that favors a true stage racer like Ullrich, Basso or Landis. The long individual time trials will prevent any pure climber from having a chance at victory. The stages are long and difficult this year. The flat stages are largely going to be contested with headwinds or crosswinds. The climbing stages are unrelenting.

If you only could watch three stages of this year’s Tour, I would recommend Stage 11 on July 13 to Pla-de-Beret, Stage 15 on July 17 to L’Alpe D’Huez and Stage 16 on July 19 to La Toussuire.

More Doping

If my rant earlier this week that they are all doing it needs any reaffirmation, then check out the latest from Spain, where almost every favorite at this year’s Tour de France has been named by any one of the Spanish papers falling over each other to name names. It really makes you wonder where the truth lies.

This is a bigger scandal than the 1998 Festina affair because of the number of riders and teams implicated. As Mrs. Cycliste Moderne said the other night “Operacion Puerto is the Euro-BALCO.”

If you want to stay up to date on the current status of the current euro dope scandal be sure to check out the Cycliste Moderne’s links to the major cycling news services.