Tour Preview and Who Will Win?

Why I am not yet Excited about the Tour Preview

It is less than three days before the Tour de France’s historic launch in London and I really have yet to get excited or interested. It is a combination of factors really. First, with the doping cloud hanging over the sport, it has been tough to get excited about the most important race in the world when the media and even race organizers seem to surmise that everyone is cheating.

Second, organizers have shied away from some of the more classic stage finishes. While different is good, a race that included more of the classic climbs and finishes would better link the old with the new and help the race move beyond its recent tarnished history. Throw us a bone. Why not return to Mont Ventoux, L’Alpe d’Huez or have the classic finishing sprint in Bordeaux. Those are classic “comfort” stages.

Third, downhill finishes on Stages 9 and 15 waste the efforts of the riders. Stage 9 climbs the Col du Galibier from the north, which requires the riders to first climb up the Col du Telegraph, which results in nearly 40km of climbing over what is arguably the longest climbing section racers ever face in the Tour de France. However the short finishing climb into Briancon comes after a 35km downhill and almost trivializes the effort.

Fourth, the time trials will be boring. The opening prologue is almost too long at 7.9km as it will likely result in time gaps that will prevent the frequent changes of the yellow jersey among the sprinters the first week. With the start in London, Saunier Duval’s David Millar and Cofidis’ Bradley Wiggins will be gunning to win at home. The first individual time trial does not come until after the Alps in stage 13, but comes the day before the first stage in the Pyrenees. At 54km, it is quite long and will result in significant time gaps. Stage 19 is similar as it is even longer at 55km. Neither are particularly technical, so look for big time gaps as the strong time trialists should be able to put 4+ minutes on the climbers like Rabobank’s Michael Rassmusen and Team CSC’s Carlos Sastre.

Fifth, I have a conference in New York and then family vacation in Washington DC from July 20-29. Versus access is suspect at this point, so why get excited when you don’t have a guarantee that you will be able to see that much of the race anyway. For that reason alone, it may result in being one of the greatest Tours ever.

So who will win?

As is the case most of the time only a handful of teams come to the Tour with reasonable possibilities of having a rider win. So, you can automatically rule out the winner of this year’s race coming from Agritubel, Barloworld, Bouygues Telecom, Euskaltel-Euskadi, Francaise de Jeux, Gerolsteiner, Lampre, Liquigas, Milram, Saunier-Duval. Cofidis, Credit Agricole, and Rabobank will not threaten in the GC but will likely have multiple stage winners, but they likely cannot put a man on the podium either. So that leaves you with the possible winners.

Astana’s Alexandre Vinokourov is the favorite. He has been preparing to be a leader for years and is one of the most aggressive riders in the peleton. His team is focused on deliverying him to victory. He is the second most famous Kazakh in the world, after Borat, naturally. However, Vinokourov has never raced the Tour as a leader and that is very different from racing opportunistically as he has done in the past. If Vino does not win this year, then he probably never will win. I am not sure that he can, however.

Predictor-Lotto’s Cadel Evans has shown good form this spring in preparation for the Tour. He has had good results previously in the Tour, but Predictor-Lotto goes to the Tour to support Robbie McEwen in the sprints and in the Green Jersey points competition. The two long time trials and the lack of a totally dedicated team, probably mean that Evans can finish on the podium but cannot win.

Levi Leipheimer of Discovery is being advertised as the next great American hope. He has been consistent over the years at the Tour showing annual top ten potential when he stays out of trouble. The move to Discovery has paid off with strong time trial results this spring. However, Alberto Contador is probably a stronger climber and Johann Bruyneel’s stated goal of getting him on the podium probably is a reasonable one under the circumstances.

Alejandro Valverde of Caisse d’Epargne is advertised as the next big thing, however, he has yet to finish a Tour de France. You need to finish one before you can win one. Maybe a top 5 is possible although I think his time trialing will be exposed with the 110km of time trials squeezed into the last nine days of the Tour.

CSC’s Carlos Sastre should finish in the top 5 again, however, like Valverde, the long non-technical individual time trials likely preclude him finishing on the podium.

T-Mobile’s Michael Rogers should have no trouble with the time trial as a multiple world time trial champion, however, he has never shown that he can hang in the high mountains. Top ten is likely top five would be a surprise.

So, that brings us to AG2R which is not on any of the lists above. Christophe Moreau is my dark horse. He recently won the Dauphine Libere and capped off the French national championships with his first ever national title. He will race the Tour in the national champion’s jersey. He has twice finished fourth in the Tour and he is a perennial top 10 rider. Since moving to AG2R, he has shown more aggression than he did in all his years at Credit Agricole. He will have all of France pulling for him. Do you think the guys down at the Tour headquarters have noticed that it has been more than 20 years since a French rider won? If ever there was a year where the Tour de France needed a French winner to keep the home crowds and sponsors happy it is 2007. However, Moreau is the only French rider with the remotest possibility of being anywhere near the top 10. 2007 could be Moreau’s best shot ever at winning Le Tour.