Tour Top Ten

I am going to be on the road for the next ten days. I am not likely going to see much of the rest of the Tour so I will be relying on Cyclingnews.com and VeloNews.com for my Tour fix. In light of the fact that Mrs. Cycliste Moderne will be attending Monday's taping of the Letterman Show, I am going to give you the Top Ten Things to Look For in the Last Half of the Tour de France:

10. Will Michael Rassmusen lose less than ten minutes over the two time trials? The "Chicken" cannot time trial. He is in the lead now but I expect him to be more than three minutes behind come Saturday.

9. How far back will Vinokourov come? Vino has shown strength over the last two days. Probably cannot win, maybe able to climb back to the top five. Who knows with how the Tour is progressing.

8. Will Moreau be able to attack? French champion Christoph Moreau got caught out in the cross winds today and suffered as Astana hammered away at the front. Moreau has never been an aggressive rider but he will have to attack in the coming mountains to climb back to the top three.

7. Has doping been reduced? I think from how up and down the racing has been, see Vinokourov, that there is some evidence that riders are suffering more and are less enhanced. The only doping issue so far has arisen from a pre Tour test. I think the answer is yes?

6. Will Discovery find a new sponsor? Typically if teams are going to get a major new sponsor they make the announcement at the Tour de France or shortly thereafter. If Discovery does not announce a new sponsor by August 1, it is likely that the team's current incarnation will change significantly.

5. What will happen at T-Mobile and CSC? Both teams have aggressive anti doping policies and practices, but both have been rocked by doping intrigue over the last month. While T-Mobile appears to be moving in the right direction, the latest scandal involving Patrik Sinkewitz may be too difficult to over come. If the team survives it is clear that it will have a much more American flavor.

4. Who will win the Green Jersey? The sprint jersey is wide open this year. Every major sprinter except Zabel has won a stage. It has been a different cast of characters everyday. The real question is who gets over the mountains and too Paris. Probably Boonen, but you never know.

3. Will Leipheimer win? I don't think so. I think he can finish top five but he has ridden much to defensively. We will see what happens with the time trials. He is not even the best climber on his team, that is Contador.

2. Which sponsor has the best podium girls: Credit Lyonnaise, Aquarel, Champion or PMU? That is a matter of personal preference.

1. Who will win? I really think that Cadel Evans is likely going to be the first Australian to win the Tour. Predictor does not have to defend Robbie McEwen's sprint interests since he went home already. The team has not had to put any real efforts in and Evans has ridden a perfect race to date. He sits in fourth and probably is the best time trialist of the current leading group.

I will see you all in about ten days. Enjoy.

But can Danes Time Trial?

This Has Been Fun

This year's Tour de France has been much more exciting than I really thought it would be. The crashes and carnage has been wide spread. Team CSC, T-Mobile, Discovery and Astana have all had riders in spectacular crashes.

The first week has been marked with spectacular individual efforts. Michael Rassmusen's victory Sunday was a herculean individual effort. It was not unexpected as the stage was of the type that favored the former mountain bike champion. Rabobank's mountain goat has historically attacked on such stages and proven himself able to get off the front, seize the King of the Mountain's jersey. He rode a really strong race dominating the day.

In past years Rassmusen has taken a page from Richard Virenque and Laurent Jalabert who grabbed the polka dot jersey with a huge effort on the first climb and then defend the lead in the mountains competition for the rest of the Tour. While Rassmusen is a very strong climber, do not forget that he cannot time trial. Unless he has done significant work in the off season in the wind tunnel and worked on his equipment, Rassmusen could conceivably lose ten to eleven minutes in the two remaining individual time trials totaling more than one hundred and ten kilometers. The time trials are too long and too flat for Rassmusen. He can go uphill really well but just cannot keep it together on the flat.

T-Mobile's Linus Gerdemann had a short but quality stint in yellow with his win on Saturday's first Alpine stage. Because it was a downhill finish, it was unlikely that any of the expected leaders would have gotten away from the other leaders, so the stage favored the very type of breakaway that succeeded. Although T-Mobile did not expect to defend the yellow during Sunday's stage, it was good to see a young rider get yellow and enjoy it.

All of the sprinters you would have expected to win stages have done so. Quick Step's Boonen, Predictor's McEwen, Credit Agricole's Hushovd, Liquigas' Pozzatto were all deserving winners during the first week. Additionally, Team CSC's Cancellara honored the yellow jersey with his attack of the front to a second stage win. So far there has not been a single stage where the ultimate winner did not put in an effort that was worthy for the victory.

It is apparent that we may be seeing a return to some of the classic Tours. No team has been able to stamp its control on the race like Banesto, Telekom, and USPostal Service/Discovery have done in the past. Astana could not get Vinokourov back into the peleton after his big crash. That would not have ever happened in the past.

Moreover, Astana, Discovery, Team CSC and Caisse d'Epargne all came to the Tour with multiple leaders free to ride for themselves. The all for one approach is not being followed this year in large part because there are no really dominant riders on any of the team. Even though Astana was built for Vinokourov, it is clear that it came with more than one card to play with former podium finisher Andreas Kloden on its roster.

As impressive as Rassmusen's ride was on Sunday, Christoph Moreau gets my nod for the best old school ride. Historically, Moreau is not known for his attacking prowess. However, on Sunday Moreau rode like Bernard Hinault going off the front and aggressively attacking. Moreau very well may have his best chance to win the Tour ever.

My Saturday Ride

Saturday I raced my first triathlon in eleven years in Twin Falls, Idaho. I had a decent swim, a really good bike, and then totally blew up on the run with severe knee pain. At the end of the bike leg, I was ten minutes ahead of my goal for the race. Then I proceeded to have a disastrous five mile run. I am not too depressed about that.

I knew the run would be tough and I ended up only four minutes slower than my goal time. It was very frustrating to have a run that was as poor as it was. There were only four people that had slower run splits than I did. I can honestly say, however, that I had as good a day as I could have hoped for. My food and water intake were good, I had good legs on the bike, I got out of my wetsuit without too much difficulty. A year ago there is no way I could have done the race. I do not have any knee pain today which leads me to believe that it may just be a shoe problem that can be resolved with new shoes and more miles. So next year, I know I can easily shave fifteen to twenty minutes off my time if I can have the type of run that I know I can do.

I always liked doing "local" triathlons. The kind that attract the locals who want to prove themselves and who are not necessarily concerned about how much carbon fibre they have or how aerodynamic their helmets are. They are just there to do it and have fun. One older guy who racked his old Dave Scott steel Ironman bike without any aero equipment by me, raced in his 1980's navy blue shorts and old headband. Of course there was also the guy who rather than walk the 100 yards to the restroom to change into his race shorts. No, he stood behind a tree right in the corner of the transition area dropped his pants and took about thirty seconds to get his lycra pulled up. Buck naked in the middle of a city park in Twin Falls, Idaho.

Wild Week

The first week of the Tour has been much more exciting than I really expected. Good crowds, exciting racing, the expected long breakaways and aggressive riding have all been present this week. Additionally, the fact that there has been no dominant team in the sprints and no team has seemed to be able to really put its stamp on the race and control the final lead out day after day after day may be evidence of the fact the peleton is cleaner than it has been in years. Teams and riders do seem to be paying for their big efforts. So here are my brief highlights of the first week so far.

The Big One

There is always a monster crash in the first week of the Tour. In variably it is some over aggressive inexperienced rider who causes it and knocks somebody important out. However, this year "the Big One" came during Stage Two and was caused not by a neophyte but rather Erik Zabel one of the best and most experienced riders in the peleton. Zabel swerved violently setting off the chain reaction that took down the Tour leader Cancellara from Team CSC, who initially seemed to have suffered a severe injury. Zabel is better than that and amazingly only Discovery Channel's Lithuanian sprinter Thomas Vaitkus had to abandon after the carnage.
However, Belgian Tom Boonen failed to win at home as he did not manage to get around his lead out man and settled for second.

It was Just a Flesh Wound

Proving that he was a worthy yellow jersey wearer and doing something that has not been seen since the reign of Bernard Hinault in the 1970's and 1980's, Team CSC's Cancellara roared past the four man break away in the final kilometer and held of the sprinters to win Stage 3 in Compiegne. Cancellara is not only the world time trial champion but he is also a former Paris-Roubaix winner which starts near the finish of Stage 3. It was an unbelievable finish as Cancellara showed grit, speed and determination in jumping off the front and managing to stay away to the finish. You do not see that much anymore. Obviously the winding finish over cobbles kept the peleton's speed low enough that the man in the Maillot Jaune could attack when he did.

Doping is not the Story

German officials and media continue to focus on doping as opposed to racing. Governmental officials threatened to pull funding for this year's world championships in Stuttgart due to doping issues. The ARD network took discraced pro Jorg Jaksche to Ghent for the finish this week. The ZDF network claims that cyclists are cheating because they are left alone. And then German rider Matthias Kessler's B sample comes back positive for testosterone which he claims must have been caused by the four packages of "natural supplements" with "chinese writing on them" he ingested before Fleche Wallone.

I am starting to think that the Germans just don't get it. If they want to combat doping then really take a stand as opposed to just keep threatening to shut down races or to stop TV coverage. Second, do not reward guys like Jaksche who has been under a cloud of suspician for several years now and who like Richard Virenque before, denied, denied, denied, before then spilling the beans on everyone he knew when it was good for him. Third, they need to recognize that the doping culture within German cycling arose largely in the context of the rise of cycling nationalism as Team Telekom/T-Mobile functioned as the defacto national team for Germany during the 1990's and early 2000's.

Cyclingnews.com has all of the details of the German media's frenzy but reported that irate viewers called demanding that the commentators covering the race stop talking about drugs and start talking about the race.

The Tour Begins

Prologue Recap

This weekend's British launch of the Tour de France has to have made Tour organizers happy. London embraced the Tour with incredible crowds. Racing the prologue through central London past many of the famous sites resulted in huge crowds. The television coverage showed wall to wall people along the entire route. Because it was a slightly longer route than past prologue courses have used, it is clear that the British certainly have not turned their backs on the sport especially since Great Britain really is not a great cycling hotbed. Although there have been some great British cyclists the country's laws and sporting culture have not fostered a long term relationship with the sport.

Team CSC's Fabien Cancellara showed why he is the world champion in the time trial. His dominating performance was the ride of the day. To win by more than thirteen seconds is really impressive. My toddler and I sat down to watch the coverage off the DVR and he stood and screamed at the television "Go, Go, Go" which is exactly what the Swiss rider did.

As I had predicted last week, however, the prologue's length resulted in the unfortunate outcome that none of the sprint favorites will likely be able to wear the yellow jersey this first week. The time gaps are just too large as a result of the fact that the prologue took most of the riders nine and a half minutes to complete. A shorter prologue results in smaller time gaps leaving sprinters within shouting distance of the lead as the time bonuses available on flat stages can catapult a sprinter into yellow. However, all of the favorite sprinters, Milram's Erik Zabel, Credit Agricole's Thor Hushovd, Predictor-Lotto's Robbie McEwen, Quik.Step's Boonen and Rabobank's Oscar Freire, lost more than forty seconds to Team CSC' Cancellara. Even with twenty second time bonuses available to stage winners on flat stages, for a sprinter to wear yellow this week they will have to likely win three or more stages to close the gap to the leaders. That is unlikely to happen.

Team CSC will likely be somewhat motivated to keep and defend Cancellara's jersey this week. While Carlos Sastre is the team's leader, the doping news regarding team manager Bjarne Riis has clearly had an impact on the team and has caused Riis to stay away from the Tour. The team seems to have its sponsor's support, having only lost one secondary sponsor but naming a new important sponsor just before the Tour. CSC is a well disciplined team and knows what it needs to do to make sponsors happy and that is lead. I would expect Cancellara to be in yellow until the race hits the mountains.

Stage 1 Recap

Sunday's crowds for Stage 1 finishing in Canterbury were just as large and as impressive as Saturday in London. However, the amazing event of Sunday was Predictor-Lotto's Robbie McEwen who came from nowhere to win. McEwen had been involved in a crash about 20km from the end. His team dropped back and raced him back to the group with about three miles to go. McEwen did an incredible job getting through the peleton, getting to the front, and timing his sprint for the win. He won by a big margin.

Now, I am not a big McEwen fan but you have to give him a tip of the hat for today's performance. He did not panic, his team worked him back to the front and he positioned himself perfectly.

The tactics of Quick.Step, Lampre and Milram have to be questioned though. All three teams were at the front setting up the train over the last 10km for their sprinters: Boonen, Benatti and Zabel. However, their speed was not high enough. The basic physics of cyling dictate that if the peleton is moving along fast enough at the end, anyone dropped in the closing kilometers just cannot get back on. Although the three teams were cooperating to some degree at the closing setting up the trains for their leaders, the peleton was not strung out in the long single file line that you used to see for Mario Cippolini in his days at Saeco. The peleton was strung out but clearly was not moving along fast enough to keep McEwen from getting back on and getting to the front and then getting around the lead out men for those teams. Really smart riding by McEwen and his team. Really dumb riding by the others.

Tour Ephemera

Somethings you may have missed:

Discovery Channel is wearing green accented team kit to highlight its environmental program.

ESPN.com's Jim Caple gives you an irreverant explaination of why the Tour is still cool and relevant. Like Caple, I am debating whether it is time to buy a Slingbox so I can watch the last week of the Tour while I am in New York from my laptop.

Pezcyclingnews.com has an interview with Anthony Pope, the man behind ProCycling Magazine's Plastic Peleton People cartoons depicting cycling events with Playmobil people.

Lance Armstrong has released a strong and detailed rebuke of David Walsh's latest doping book.

Tour Preview and Who Will Win?

Why I am not yet Excited about the Tour Preview

It is less than three days before the Tour de France’s historic launch in London and I really have yet to get excited or interested. It is a combination of factors really. First, with the doping cloud hanging over the sport, it has been tough to get excited about the most important race in the world when the media and even race organizers seem to surmise that everyone is cheating.

Second, organizers have shied away from some of the more classic stage finishes. While different is good, a race that included more of the classic climbs and finishes would better link the old with the new and help the race move beyond its recent tarnished history. Throw us a bone. Why not return to Mont Ventoux, L’Alpe d’Huez or have the classic finishing sprint in Bordeaux. Those are classic “comfort” stages.

Third, downhill finishes on Stages 9 and 15 waste the efforts of the riders. Stage 9 climbs the Col du Galibier from the north, which requires the riders to first climb up the Col du Telegraph, which results in nearly 40km of climbing over what is arguably the longest climbing section racers ever face in the Tour de France. However the short finishing climb into Briancon comes after a 35km downhill and almost trivializes the effort.

Fourth, the time trials will be boring. The opening prologue is almost too long at 7.9km as it will likely result in time gaps that will prevent the frequent changes of the yellow jersey among the sprinters the first week. With the start in London, Saunier Duval’s David Millar and Cofidis’ Bradley Wiggins will be gunning to win at home. The first individual time trial does not come until after the Alps in stage 13, but comes the day before the first stage in the Pyrenees. At 54km, it is quite long and will result in significant time gaps. Stage 19 is similar as it is even longer at 55km. Neither are particularly technical, so look for big time gaps as the strong time trialists should be able to put 4+ minutes on the climbers like Rabobank’s Michael Rassmusen and Team CSC’s Carlos Sastre.

Fifth, I have a conference in New York and then family vacation in Washington DC from July 20-29. Versus access is suspect at this point, so why get excited when you don’t have a guarantee that you will be able to see that much of the race anyway. For that reason alone, it may result in being one of the greatest Tours ever.

So who will win?

As is the case most of the time only a handful of teams come to the Tour with reasonable possibilities of having a rider win. So, you can automatically rule out the winner of this year’s race coming from Agritubel, Barloworld, Bouygues Telecom, Euskaltel-Euskadi, Francaise de Jeux, Gerolsteiner, Lampre, Liquigas, Milram, Saunier-Duval. Cofidis, Credit Agricole, and Rabobank will not threaten in the GC but will likely have multiple stage winners, but they likely cannot put a man on the podium either. So that leaves you with the possible winners.

Astana’s Alexandre Vinokourov is the favorite. He has been preparing to be a leader for years and is one of the most aggressive riders in the peleton. His team is focused on deliverying him to victory. He is the second most famous Kazakh in the world, after Borat, naturally. However, Vinokourov has never raced the Tour as a leader and that is very different from racing opportunistically as he has done in the past. If Vino does not win this year, then he probably never will win. I am not sure that he can, however.

Predictor-Lotto’s Cadel Evans has shown good form this spring in preparation for the Tour. He has had good results previously in the Tour, but Predictor-Lotto goes to the Tour to support Robbie McEwen in the sprints and in the Green Jersey points competition. The two long time trials and the lack of a totally dedicated team, probably mean that Evans can finish on the podium but cannot win.

Levi Leipheimer of Discovery is being advertised as the next great American hope. He has been consistent over the years at the Tour showing annual top ten potential when he stays out of trouble. The move to Discovery has paid off with strong time trial results this spring. However, Alberto Contador is probably a stronger climber and Johann Bruyneel’s stated goal of getting him on the podium probably is a reasonable one under the circumstances.

Alejandro Valverde of Caisse d’Epargne is advertised as the next big thing, however, he has yet to finish a Tour de France. You need to finish one before you can win one. Maybe a top 5 is possible although I think his time trialing will be exposed with the 110km of time trials squeezed into the last nine days of the Tour.

CSC’s Carlos Sastre should finish in the top 5 again, however, like Valverde, the long non-technical individual time trials likely preclude him finishing on the podium.

T-Mobile’s Michael Rogers should have no trouble with the time trial as a multiple world time trial champion, however, he has never shown that he can hang in the high mountains. Top ten is likely top five would be a surprise.

So, that brings us to AG2R which is not on any of the lists above. Christophe Moreau is my dark horse. He recently won the Dauphine Libere and capped off the French national championships with his first ever national title. He will race the Tour in the national champion’s jersey. He has twice finished fourth in the Tour and he is a perennial top 10 rider. Since moving to AG2R, he has shown more aggression than he did in all his years at Credit Agricole. He will have all of France pulling for him. Do you think the guys down at the Tour headquarters have noticed that it has been more than 20 years since a French rider won? If ever there was a year where the Tour de France needed a French winner to keep the home crowds and sponsors happy it is 2007. However, Moreau is the only French rider with the remotest possibility of being anywhere near the top 10. 2007 could be Moreau’s best shot ever at winning Le Tour.